OPEC lowers global oil demand growth forecast

OPEC lowers global oil demand growth forecast

On Monday OPEC reduced its global oil demand growth predictions for 2018 and 2019, although has revised up its estimates for non-OPEC supply growth for another month.

In its Monthly Oil Market report, OPEC reduced its oil growth demand estimates by 20,000 barrels per day, from last month’s forecasts, to 1.64 million bpd as a result of reduced demand in Latin America and the Middle East in this year’s second quarter.

Meanwhile the latest forecast for next year shows a slowdown in demand with growth expected to at 1.43 million bpd, although global consumption is expected to cross the 100 million bpd mark in 2019, which is currently expected to reach 98.83 million bpd this year.

Much of the 2019 growth will come from the Americas amongst the OECD bloc with China and India expected to see the biggest demand growth in non-OECD nations.

“However, if any unexpected supply outages should occur due to natural disasters/technical shortcomings and these coincide with any geopolitical supply disruption, it could bring the market into an imbalanced situation,” the bloc stated. “Furthermore, investment has not yet returned to the levels seen prior to the price crash of 2014,” OPEC said.

It added: “Rising trade tensions, leading to mounting uncertainties, translating into falling business and consumer sentiment, may provide a significant downside risk to the current relatively positive outlook. Negative impacts on global investments, capital flows and consumer spending may also have a detrimental effect on the global oil market.”

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